We cover steel.  That’s not just steel and nothing but steel, but includes all its upstream and downstream components.  So we also cover scrap, iron ore, DRI, integrated steelmills, steel minimills, service centers, logistics and mill service providers.

Why? Its fun.  We like the way steel touches almost every basic industry and commodity sector in one way or another.  And it is very global, with China, India, Asian, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the US all slugging it out. We’ve covered this crazy industry for over 35 years on Wall Street and we intend to continue following its investment rhythms so long as they make sense to us!

  • Aldo-on-Steel is our basic weekly steel industry report.  It highlights what we think are the important themes of the day, tracks pricing, margins, supply and demand trends, inventory and other factors, and offers a favorite-to-least favorite list of steel company equities that combine the best facets of valuation, momentum and strategic positioning.  Those stocks are ranked in attractiveness relative to our proprietary Fair Value Range, which we believe represents a triangulation of potential values based on earnings, cash flows, shipment and sales, and replacement cost of the assets.  We adjust our valuation metrics for Quality Rankings, Growth, Operational Excellence and Financial Strength.  Investors find our rankings helpful in decisions about long or short positions.
  • Premium Services include consulting assignments that could involve retainer agreements, or something as simple as a conference call on a predetermined topic. We have annual and spontaneous events for clients and other guests, including our Steel Forum and Dinner held each June in NYC, a tradition since 1987. Events like this involve our network of industry contacts in a town hall format, making them unique and sometimes a valuable research tool.

Recent Posts

Our view on recovery: It’s the consumer, stupid, and minimills win.

The Markets:  We hold out hope for a V-shaped recovery keeping in mind that the damage done to the economy is mostly in the area of consumption, especially consumer spending. We view that as easier to restart than something that affects the structural composition of the economy or the financial system.  Full stops in production, … Continue reading Our view on recovery: It’s the consumer, stupid, and minimills win.

Argentina and Brazil are different in currency and steel

President Trump dropped his threat to reinstate Section 232 tariffs on Brazilian steel and aluminum.  Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro spoke by phone on Friday.  Brazil claims to have persuaded Trump not to follow through on his threat to reimpose the 25% tariffs on Brazilian steel (including semi-finished slabs that are important imports for … Continue reading Argentina and Brazil are different in currency and steel

Steel Demand

Market demand appears to be softening.  Our faith in the growth trend in steel demand is being tested by tariff threats and Chinese retaliation, the latest twists in the Trump/China trade war.   Prolonging negotiations while increasing tariffs, as Trump promised over the weekend, has been met with dismay by the markets.  And with retaliation by … Continue reading Steel Demand

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